War, Oil, Sanctions, and a Changing Maritime Order

Nearly four weeks into Operation Epic Fury, the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed and the IEA has called the Iran war the "greatest energy security threat in history."

In response, the U.S. has issued unprecedented temporary waivers allowing delivery of Russian and Iranian crude already at sea — moves that, alongside record emergency stock releases, raise fundamental questions about how sanctions enforcement and market management will evolve in the weeks ahead.

This live executive briefing cuts through the noise to examine how the war is reshaping global oil flows, what U.S. waivers mean for Russian and Iranian exports, and where prices and policy go from here:

• Russia as energy beneficiary: higher prices, sanctions relief, and implications for the Ukraine war.
• U.S. sanctions waivers: mechanics, scope, and how Europe and Asia are responding.
• Iran's leverage over Hormuz: selective blockade, rerouted transits, and effective control of the strait.
• The global supply gap: rerouted trade flows, alternative barrels, freight rates, and demand destruction.
• IEA's record 400-million-barrel reserve release: why prices remain high and volatile
• Geopolitical feedback loop: shifting alliances, Russian crude pivoting to Asia, and European resolve under pressure.

Meet the Panel of Experts